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Shrimp Shady

4yo Colt · 9-6 · OR 90

Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Stayers (Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 7f 209y

#1

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

90%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low-mileage 4-y-o who returned to turf to land the Chester Plate in May and found a bit more improvement when shading a tight finish at Newbury (16.5f, firm, 13/2) 21 days ago. Nudged up 3 lb but no surprise were he to pull out more. Player under Moore.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newmarket 25/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 80 · 1m4f Goo 130 · below its mark25/09/2025 · OR 80 par25/094OR 804 @ Lingfield 22/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 77 · 1m2f Std 128 · beat its mark22/12/2025 · OR 77 par4 @ Kempton 21/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 80 · 1m2f219y Sta 133 · beat its mark21/01/2026 · OR 80 par21/014OR 803 @ Wolverhampton 06/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 79 · 1m4f51y Std 127 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Wolverhampton 03/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 77 · 1m5f219y Std 136 · beat its mark03/03/2026 · OR 77 par3/034OR 774 @ Lingfield 03/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 79 · 1m7f169y Std 133 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 79 par2 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 17 · OR 82 · 2m2f140y Goo 131 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 82 par8/052OR 822 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 20 · OR 87 · 2m56y Sta 137 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ Newbury 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 87 · 2m110y GF 129 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 87 par18/072OR 87projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Newbury21st1st0
2026-06-27Newcastle26th6th0
2026-05-08Chester21st1st0
2026-04-03Lingfield42nd4th−2
2026-03-03Wolverhampton41st3rd−2
2026-02-06Wolverhampton34th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/096/028/0518/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength99%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/09/20257th18/581%14%-0.67
22/12/20252nd12/137%89%+0.52
21/01/20264th6/594%40%-0.54
06/02/20264th2/189%57%-0.32
03/03/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
03/04/20262nd11/486%92%+0.07
08/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
27/06/20266th3/184%74%-0.11
18/07/20261st13/266%100%+0.34