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Spirit Mixer

8yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 94

Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Stayers (Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 7f 209y

#5

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Edged out Dancing In Paris to win last year's Northumberland Plate. Has shown he's still capable of useful form this year but ran no sort of race when defending his Northumberland Plate crown latest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Goodwood 08/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 89 · 2m Sft 135 · beat its mark08/06/2025 · OR 89 par8/063OR 892 @ Newcastle 28/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 20 · OR 89 · 2m56y Std 122 · beat its mark28/06/2025 · OR 89 par2 @ Ascot 09/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 94 · 1m7f209y Goo 138 · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 94 par9/082OR 942 @ York 20/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 94 · 2m56y Goo 129 · beat its mark20/08/2025 · OR 94 par2 @ Chester 13/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 93 · 1m7f196y GS 128 · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 93 par13/092OR 931 @ Newmarket 25/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 96 · 2m Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/09/2025 · OR 96 par2 @ Kempton 28/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 96 · 1m7f218y Sta 139 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 96 par28/032OR 962 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 96 · 2m2f140y Goo 127 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 96 par2 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 19th of 20 · OR 95 · 2m56y Sta 130 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 95 par27/062OR 95projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-27Newcastle219th19th0
2026-05-08Chester210th10th0
2026-03-28Kempton23rd3rd0
2025-09-25Newmarket14th3rd+1
2025-09-13Chester21st1st0
2025-08-20York27th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0620/0828/0327/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength33%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/06/20252nd3/184%88%+0.03
28/06/20251st25/10%100%+1.00
09/08/20255th4/179%50%-0.29
20/08/20257th25/10%50%+0.50
13/09/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
25/09/20254th20/10%50%+0.50
28/03/20263rd14/126%75%+0.49
08/05/202610th22/10%36%+0.36
27/06/202619th18/15%5%0.00