6
Asgard's Captain
6yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 91
Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge (Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 211y
#7
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Newmarket | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 2 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newmarket | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Epsom Downs | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Meydan | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength50%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 19/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 16/01/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 82% | -0.10 |
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 27/06/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 10/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |