7
Castle Stuart
4yo Colt · 9-8 · OR 91
Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge (Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 211y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | York | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Carlisle | 2 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | York | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Doncaster | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Doncaster | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength57%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 11/09/2025 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 33% | -0.22 |
| 10/10/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 08/11/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 29/03/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 64% | +0.09 |
| 30/05/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 18% | -0.34 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 93% | +0.51 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |