9
Fantasy Believer
9yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 89
Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge (Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 211y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Ascot | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Doncaster | 2 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Epsom Downs | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Doncaster | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength73%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 07/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |
| 28/08/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 13/09/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 28/09/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 44% | -0.40 |
| 25/10/2025 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 11/07/2026 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 52% | +0.52 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |