Frances Ethel
6yo Mare · 10-0 · OR 97
Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge (Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 211y
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-03 | Lingfield | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-17 | Newcastle | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Newmarket | 1 | 9th | 7th | +1 |
| 2024-11-30 | Turffontein | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2024-11-02 | Turffontein | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2024-10-12 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/04/2024 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 25/05/2024 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 12/10/2024 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 02/11/2024 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 30/11/2024 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 56% | +0.00 |
| 10/10/2025 | 9th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/11/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 03/12/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |