4
Night Breeze
6yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 97
Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge (Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 211y
#1
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
92%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Goodwood | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Newmarket | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Epsom Downs | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Musselburgh | 4 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-04-03 | Lingfield | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 06/03/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 28/03/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 63% | -0.24 |
| 28/04/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 92% | +0.31 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |