10
Stem
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 89
Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge (Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 211y
#6
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Sandown | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Newmarket | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Newbury | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-09-06 | Ascot | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/2024 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 24/07/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 14/08/2025 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 06/09/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 93% | +0.09 |
| 18/04/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 65% | +0.13 |
| 05/06/2026 | 13th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.39 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |