6
American Gulf
3yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 92
Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Sprint (Handicap) · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | Salisbury | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Windsor | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-07-31 | Goodwood | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 13th | 11th | +2 |
| 2025-06-02 | Windsor | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 17/06/2025 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 37% | 0.00 |
| 31/07/2025 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 01/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 02/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |