5

Figjam

3yo Filly · 9-11 · OR 92

Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Sprint (Handicap) · 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A winner at 2 yrs who ran about as well as could be expected in the face of another stiff task when sixth of 13 in Group 3 Summer Stakes (50/1) at York (6f, good to firm) 29 days ago. Makes a belated handicap debut and needs more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength64%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.7
Today: 2
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Hamilton 03/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 5f7y GS 1283/0941 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 6f Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Leicester 14/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 6f Goo 12614/1051 @ Doncaster 25/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 89 · 6f2y Hvy 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 89 par1 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 89 · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 89 par18/041OR 891 @ Haydock 22/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 93 · 6f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 93 par1 @ Musselburgh 06/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 93 · 7f15y Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 93 par6/061OR 931 @ Carlisle 24/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 93 · 6f195y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 93 par1 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 92 · 6f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 92 par10/071OR 92projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10York16th4th+1
2026-06-24Carlisle14th3rd+1
2026-06-06Musselburgh16th5th+1
2026-05-22Haydock14th3rd+1
2026-04-18Newbury17th5th+1
2025-10-25Doncaster12nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0925/106/0610/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 10
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength39%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/09/20252nd16/116%67%+0.51
20/09/20254th200/10%77%+0.77
14/10/20251st4/696%100%+0.04
25/10/20252nd12/137%83%+0.46
18/04/20267th66/10%54%+0.54
22/05/20264th12/137%79%+0.42
06/06/20266th14/126%17%-0.10
24/06/20264th18/15%67%+0.61
10/07/20266th50/10%58%+0.58