10
Grasmere Boy
3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 91
Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Sprint (Handicap) · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 2.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Chester | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ripon | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-30 | Catterick | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newcastle | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |