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Havana Hurricane

3yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 97

Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Sprint (Handicap) · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 2 of first 3 starts last year, including the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot. Ran well sent handicapping in first-time headgear when third at Sandown in July, despite not seeming ideally suited by the drop back to 5f. Never better than mid-field here last time but has since been gelded.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength56%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.9
Today: 2
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 23 · OR - · 5f GF 131 · HIGHER CLASS18/0612 @ Newbury 19/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 19 · OR 100 · 5f34y Gd 125 · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 100 par1 @ Goodwood 31/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 100 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2025 · OR 100 par31/071OR 1001 @ Doncaster 12/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 102 · 5f3y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2025 · OR 102 par1 @ Newmarket 27/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 102 · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 102 par27/091OR 1021 @ Newbury 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 101 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 101 par1 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 18th of 22 · OR 101 · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 101 par19/061OR 1012 @ Sandown 03/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 100 · 5f10y Gd 135 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 100 par2 @ Ascot 11/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 99 · 5f GF 129 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 99 par11/072OR 99projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-11Ascot29th9th0
2026-07-03Sandown23rd3rd0
2026-06-19Royal Ascot118th16th+2
2026-05-16Newbury13rd2nd+1
2025-09-27Newmarket16th4th+2
2025-09-12Doncaster14th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0612/0919/0611/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength45%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/06/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
19/07/20252nd6/492%94%+0.02
31/07/20253rd3/184%75%-0.09
12/09/20254th4/179%67%-0.12
27/09/20256th7/163%38%-0.26
16/05/20263rd22/10%78%+0.78
19/06/202618th50/10%19%+0.19
03/07/20263rd3/184%50%-0.34
11/07/20269th9/153%43%-0.10