4
Red Spells Danger
3yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 92
Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Sprint (Handicap) · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | York | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Newmarket | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hamilton | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ripon | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-23 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength81%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 10/10/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 62% | +0.35 |
| 08/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 90% | +0.04 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 88% | -0.07 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 1/16 | 100% | 100% | +0.00 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 95% | +0.14 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |