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Archers Bay

3yo Colt · 10-2 · OR 92

Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Classic (Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 211y

#4

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won his first 2 starts after joining Marco Botti, including at Newmarket in April. Disappointed in the Italian Derby in June but shaped as if back in form when fourth of 6 at Newmarket (July course) last month, short of room and finishing with running left. One for the shortlist.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength45%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Galway 09/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 1m98y Sft 1339/09C8C8 @ Tipperary 05/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 1m1f Hvy 1335/10C8C8 @ Gowran Park 20/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m75y Hvy 13320/10C85 @ Wolverhampton 06/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 88 · 1m1f104y Std 133 · beat its mark06/12/2025 · OR 88 par6/125OR 883 @ Newmarket 15/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 88 · 1m2f Gd 133 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 88 par15/043OR 881 @ Newmarket 01/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 93 · 1m2f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 93 par1/051OR 932 @ Newmarket 10/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 93 · 1m2f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 93 par10/072OR 93projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10Newmarket24th3rd+1
2026-05-01Newmarket13rd0th+2
2026-04-15Newmarket31st1st0
2025-12-06Wolverhampton51st3rd−2
2025-10-20Gowran Park?3rd9th−5
2025-10-05Tipperary?4th10th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/096/1210/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength86%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/09/20258th16/116%0%-0.16
05/10/20254th12/137%40%+0.03
20/10/20253rd22/10%75%+0.75
06/12/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
15/04/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
01/05/20263rd12/137%50%+0.13
10/07/20264th13/266%40%-0.26