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Baltic Fleet

3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 86

Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Classic (Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 211y

#8

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★ Timeform

Commentary

Yarmouth 2-y-o maiden winner but has stepped up in handicaps, finishing third of 14 in a warm event at York in May before second at Wolverhampton 15 days later. Sold for £170,000 afterwards but ran no sort of race on recent stable debut. Wears first-time visor.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Windsor 01/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 1m31y Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS1/0925 @ Yarmouth 18/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 1m1f21y GS 13318/0954 @ Bath 05/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m2f37y Goo 1305/0444 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 82 · 1m3f188y Gd 137 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 82 par14/054OR 823 @ Wolverhampton 29/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 84 · 1m4f51y Std 134 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 84 par29/053OR 84projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29Goodwood2+1
2026-05-29Wolverhampton32nd2nd0
2026-05-14York43rd4th−1
2026-04-05Bath42nd3rd−1
2025-09-18Yarmouth51st3rd−2
2025-09-01Windsor25th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0918/095/0414/0529/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 10
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/09/20255th9/153%56%+0.03
18/09/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
05/04/20262nd8/1196%86%-0.10
14/05/20263rd15/261%85%+0.24
29/05/20262nd15/890%67%-0.23