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Last Verse

3yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 76

Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Classic (Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 211y

#7

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed improved form to get off the mark in 4-runner 1½m handicap at Chepstow in July for Andrew Balding. Made a satisfactory start for current connections despite hanging right when 2½ lengths third of 4 in 1¾m at Sandown last time, but this requires more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Haydock 23/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 6f212y Goo 13323/0532 @ York 28/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS28/0622 @ Goodwood 02/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR - · 1m Hvy 133 · HIGHER CLASS2/0925 @ Lingfield 18/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 73 · 1m2f Goo 133 · below its mark18/06/2026 · OR 73 par18/065OR 735 @ Chepstow 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 71 · 1m4f Goo 131 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 71 par3/075OR 714 @ Sandown 29/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 77 · 1m6f Goo 135 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 77 par29/074OR 77projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29Sandown43rd4th−1
2026-07-03Chepstow51st3rd−2
2026-06-18Lingfield58th10th−2
2025-09-02Goodwood23rd2nd+1
2025-06-28York25th4th+1
2025-05-23Haydock33rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0528/062/0918/063/0729/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength52%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/05/20253rd4/179%50%-0.29
28/06/20255th8/158%33%-0.25
02/09/20253rd7/491%0%-0.91
18/06/20268th14/126%13%-0.14
03/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
29/07/20263rd13/266%33%-0.32