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Cerulean Bay

5yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 106

Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile (Handicap) (Rnd) · 7f 213y

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

12%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ran well when fifth of 28 in the Royal Hunt Cup at the Royal Meeting and went close at Glorious Goodwood 8 days ago, running another cracker in a top-end handicap. Hard to rule out another good showing assuming this doesn't come too quickly for him.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Goodwood 12/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 100 · 1m Gd 140 · beat its mark12/10/2025 · OR 100 par12/102OR 1002 @ Ascot 18/10/2025 · Pos 13th of 20 · OR 95 · 1m Gd 129 · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 95 par1 @ Nottingham 29/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 103 · 1m75y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/10/2025 · OR 103 par29/101OR 1032 @ Haydock 25/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 103 · 7f37y Goo 136 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 103 par2 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 103 · 7f192y Gd 132 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 103 par14/052OR 1032 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 28 · OR 105 · 1m GF 133 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 105 par2 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 105 · 7f192y Goo 142 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 105 par11/072OR 1051 @ Pontefract 26/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 105 · 1m6y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 105 par2 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 105 · 1m Goo 138 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 105 par31/072OR 105projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Goodwood22nd2nd0
2026-07-26Pontefract14th3rd+1
2026-07-11York28th8th0
2026-06-17Royal Ascot25th5th0
2026-05-14York22nd2nd0
2026-04-25Haydock24th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/1025/0411/0731/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength62%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/10/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
18/10/202513th9/153%37%-0.16
29/10/20253rd10/147%71%+0.24
25/04/20264th12/137%73%+0.36
14/05/20262nd6/168%94%+0.26
17/06/20265th25/10%85%+0.85
11/07/20268th3/184%42%-0.43
26/07/20264th15/261%40%-0.21
31/07/20262nd12/137%94%+0.57