IvyArcIvyArc
3

Crown Board

6yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 103

Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile (Handicap) (Rnd) · 7f 213y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

75%

Place Prob

52%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Returned from a 4-month break in good form, finishing third of 10 at Newmarket 35 days ago before good second of 11 here 14 days ago and he looks to be right at the top of his game so merits plenty of respect.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength60%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Hamilton 18/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 100 · 6f6y Goo 140 · beat its mark18/07/2025 · OR 100 par18/072OR 1002 @ Chester 30/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 97 · 7f127y Goo 126 · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 97 par3 @ Sandown 12/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 95 · 7f Sft 135 · beat its mark12/09/2025 · OR 95 par12/093OR 952 @ Wolverhampton 25/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 102 · 7f36y Std 137 · beat its mark25/11/2025 · OR 102 par2 @ Chelmsford City 11/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 102 · 1m Std 135 · beat its mark11/12/2025 · OR 102 par11/122OR 102C1 @ Meydan 23/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 105 · 1m Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/01/2026 · OR 105 parC0 @ Meydan 28/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 105 · 1m Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 105 par28/02C?OR 1052 @ Newmarket 04/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 104 · 7f GF 141 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 104 par2 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 103 · 1m GF 137 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 103 par25/072OR 103projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Ascot22nd2nd0
2026-07-04Newmarket23rd3rd0
2026-02-28Meydan?10th8th+2
2026-01-23Meydan?4th2nd+1
2025-12-11Chelmsford City21st1st0
2025-11-25Wolverhampton24th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0725/1128/0225/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength68%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/07/20259th40/10%38%+0.38
30/08/20256th12/137%44%+0.08
12/09/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
25/11/20254th6/168%50%-0.18
11/12/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
23/01/20264th14/126%50%+0.24
28/02/202610th18/15%10%+0.05
04/07/20263rd5/174%78%+0.04
25/07/20262nd9/153%90%+0.37