Ebt's Guard
5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 103
Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile (Handicap) (Rnd) · 7f 213y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Goodwood | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Sandown | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newbury | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 2 | 18th | 18th | 0 |
| 2025-12-01 | Kempton | 1 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 68% | +0.68 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 95% | +0.47 |
| 29/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 01/12/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 57% | +0.15 |
| 18/04/2026 | 18th | 12/1 | 37% | 26% | -0.11 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 79% | +0.52 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 85% | +0.27 |
| 31/07/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 53% | -0.10 |