10
Serengeti
4yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 96
Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile (Handicap) (Rnd) · 7f 213y
#9
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 12.5 /10 (raw 9.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Windsor | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Ascot | 2 | 28th | 28th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 2 | 21th | 21th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Kempton | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Southwell | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength25%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 25/11/2025 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 11/12/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 01/01/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 18/03/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 18/04/2026 | 21st | 80/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 09/05/2026 | 28th | 150/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 50/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 19/06/2026 | 15th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |