Two Tribes
5yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 104
Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile (Handicap) (Rnd) · 7f 213y
#8
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 11.1 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 2 | 27th | 27th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ascot | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Newmarket | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Meydan | 1 | 11th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Meydan | ? | 11th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 02/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 30/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.19 |
| 28/02/2026 | 11th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 06/03/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 20/06/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 01/08/2026 | 27th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |