5
Mick's The Boy
2yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 66
Ayr · A McKie Builders EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength50%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Catterick | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thirsk | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 3 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 15/07/2026 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 44% | -0.46 |