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6

Ponte Carlo

2yo Colt · 9-7 · OR 66

Ayr · A McKie Builders EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Found improvement under a more positive ride when third of 10 in 7f maiden at Newcastle but not so good fitted with cheekpieces in 6f Nottingham nursery next time. Given a break and probably has a race in him.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength79%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Musselburgh 12/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 5f1y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS12/0424 @ Beverley 04/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 5f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS4/0543 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 6f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS23/0534 @ Newcastle 25/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 66 · 7f14y Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 66 par25/064OR 665 @ Nottingham 02/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 66 · 6f18y Goo 127 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 66 par2/075OR 66projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-02Nottingham55th5th0
2026-06-25Newcastle43rd2nd+1
2026-05-23York36th4th+2
2026-05-04Beverley48th7th+1
2026-04-12Musselburgh23rd-1th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/044/0523/0525/062/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength50%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/04/20263rd33/10%33%+0.33
04/05/20268th3/184%30%-0.54
23/05/20266th80/10%29%+0.29
25/06/20263rd7/163%78%+0.15
02/07/20265th9/153%43%-0.10