Falcon Queen
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 57
Ayr · Sunday Roast At Western House Hotel Handicap · 5f
#13
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 4 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-05-27 | Hamilton | 4 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-04-23 | Dundalk | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-04-01 | Dundalk | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 73% | -0.17 |
| 01/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 23/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 27/05/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/06/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 27/07/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |