Harb
7yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 61
Ayr · Sunday Roast At Western House Hotel Handicap · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Hamilton | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | 4 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2026-07-11 | Hamilton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hamilton | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Carlisle | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 07/04/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 42% | -0.35 |
| 05/05/2026 | 8th | 5/2 | 87% | 13% | -0.74 |
| 18/05/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 04/06/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 26/06/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 25/07/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |