Harry Mole
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 57
Ayr · Sunday Roast At Western House Hotel Handicap · 5f
#8
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Bath | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thirsk | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Carlisle | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Haydock | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-11-25 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/2025 | 6th | 125/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 18/10/2025 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 25/11/2025 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 25/04/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 18/05/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 91% | +0.38 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 92% | +0.07 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |