IvyArcIvyArc
1

Hi Lord

4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 65

Ayr · Sunday Roast At Western House Hotel Handicap · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

30%

Place Prob

24%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 5f handicap at Hamilton in May and quickly back to form when third, beaten 2 lengths, in C&D handicap a month ago. Can go well again back down in class.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength70%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Hamilton 29/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 76 · 5f7y Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 76 par29/093OR 765 @ Musselburgh 13/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 73 · 5f1y Gd 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/10/2025 · OR 73 par5 @ Nottingham 29/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 70 · 5f8y Sft 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/10/2025 · OR 70 par29/105OR 705 @ Southwell 10/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 67 · 6f16y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/03/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Pontefract 21/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 65 · 6f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 65 par21/045OR 656 @ Hamilton 03/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 63 · 5f7y Gd 134 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Hamilton 04/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 66 · 5f7y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 66 par4/065OR 665 @ Hamilton 10/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 66 · 5f7y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Ayr 13/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 66 · 5f Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 66 par13/075OR 66projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-13Ayr53rd2nd+1
2026-06-10Hamilton57th6th+1
2026-06-04Hamilton53rd2nd+1
2026-05-03Hamilton61st1st0
2026-04-21Pontefract55th4th+1
2026-03-10Southwell510th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0910/034/0613/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength22%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/09/20256th40/10%44%+0.44
13/10/20257th11/142%33%-0.09
29/10/20258th5/174%13%-0.61
10/03/202610th20/10%10%+0.10
21/04/20265th14/126%43%+0.17
03/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
04/06/20263rd7/282%60%-0.22
10/06/20267th9/488%0%-0.88
13/07/20263rd12/137%80%+0.43