9
Keep The Gold
4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 55
Ayr · Sunday Roast At Western House Hotel Handicap · 5f
#11
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thirsk | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Ayr | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-20 | Redcar | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-05-31 | Southwell | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 13
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength83%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2024 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 18/10/2024 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/05/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 31/05/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 20/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.10 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |