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6

Midnight Lir

5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 59

Ayr · Sunday Roast At Western House Hotel Handicap · 5f

#9

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

On a long losing run but now a whopping 24 lb lower than last winning mark and caught the eye at Thirsk last time (eased off and lost third close home). Could pop up soon.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Pontefract 14/04/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 65 · 5f3y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/04/2025 · OR 65 par14/045OR 655 @ Beverley 13/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 63 · 5f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/05/2025 · OR 63 par5 @ Doncaster 19/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 65 · 5f3y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 65 par19/075OR 656 @ Newcastle 02/10/2025 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 65 · 5f Std 135 · below its mark02/10/2025 · OR 65 par6 @ Hamilton 03/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 64 · 5f7y Gd 135 · below its mark03/05/2026 · OR 64 par3/056OR 646 @ Carlisle 29/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 61 · 5f Goo 131 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 61 · 5f Goo 132 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 61 par16/066OR 615 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 61 · 5f Gd 147 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Thirsk 24/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 60 · 5f Goo 138 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 60 par24/076OR 60projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24Thirsk64th4th0
2026-07-05Ayr54th3rd+1
2026-06-16Thirsk64th4th0
2026-05-29Carlisle63rd3rd0
2026-05-03Hamilton69th9th0
2025-10-02Newcastle612th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/042/1016/0624/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength77%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/04/20258th11/142%22%-0.20
13/05/20252nd18/15%88%+0.82
19/07/20256th10/382%29%-0.54
02/10/202512th12/137%8%-0.29
03/05/20269th17/255%27%-0.28
29/05/20263rd12/137%78%+0.41
16/06/20264th7/163%67%+0.04
05/07/20264th10/147%50%+0.03
24/07/20264th3/184%63%-0.22