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12

Royal Duke

5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 46

Ayr · Sunday Roast At Western House Hotel Handicap · 5f

#7

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner on a long losing run but wasn't seen to best effect here (forced to switch late on, Startling second) a fortnight ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Musselburgh 05/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 59 · 5f1y Sft 129 · below its mark05/11/2025 · OR 59 par5/116OR 596 @ Ayr 05/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 57 · 5f Goo 128 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Musselburgh 21/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 55 · 5f1y Gd 130 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 55 par21/056OR 556 @ Musselburgh 06/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 53 · 5f1y Gd 129 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 51 · 5f Sft 129 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 51 par20/066OR 516 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 50 · 6f Gd 129 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Ayr 13/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 50 · 6f Goo 127 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 50 par13/076OR 506 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 48 · 6f GF 125 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 48 · 5f Goo 126 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 48 par27/076OR 48projClass-projected finish: 13th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27Ayr65th5th0
2026-07-20Ayr66th6th0
2026-07-13Ayr65th5th0
2026-07-06Ayr67th7th0
2026-06-20Ayr67th7th0
2026-06-06Musselburgh63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/116/0613/0727/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength38%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/11/202510th28/10%18%+0.18
05/05/20267th14/126%25%-0.01
21/05/20266th10/147%29%-0.19
06/06/20263rd17/255%67%+0.11
20/06/20267th9/153%14%-0.38
06/07/20267th14/126%50%+0.24
13/07/20265th20/10%43%+0.43
20/07/20266th5/287%0%-0.87
27/07/20265th5/174%43%-0.31