South Parade
5yo Mare · 9-7 · OR 58
Ayr · Sunday Roast At Western House Hotel Handicap · 5f
#10
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Musselburgh | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ripon | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-06-21 | Pontefract | 4 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-06-10 | Hamilton | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Ripon | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thirsk | 4 | 12th | 10th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2025 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 12/04/2026 | 16th | 14/1 | 26% | 6% | -0.20 |
| 26/04/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 28/05/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 21/06/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 06/07/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |