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5

Startling

4yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 60

Ayr · Sunday Roast At Western House Hotel Handicap · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

11%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A 4-time winner over 5f for David O'Meara and proving consistent in defeat for current yard, running another sound race to hit the frame for the fifth successive time when second over C&D 12 days ago. Blinkers now tried (won in first-time hood at 2 yrs). One to consider.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength67%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 08/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 59 · 5f Sta 131 · beat its mark08/09/2025 · OR 59 par8/096OR 596 @ Chelmsford City 11/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 59 · 5f Std 134 · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 59 par6 @ Newcastle 02/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 63 · 5f Std 133 · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 63 par2/106OR 636 @ Redcar 18/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 62 · 5f217y Goo 132 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 60 · 5f Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 60 par5/065OR 605 @ Southwell 18/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 60 · 4f214y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Leicester 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 60 · 5f GF 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 60 par25/065OR 605 @ Doncaster 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 61 · 5f3y GF 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 60 · 5f Goo 138 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 60 par27/076OR 60projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27Ayr62nd2nd0
2026-07-18Doncaster54th3rd+1
2026-06-25Leicester52nd1st+1
2026-06-18Southwell52nd1st+1
2026-06-05Thirsk53rd2nd+1
2026-05-18Redcar68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0918/0525/0627/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength59%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/09/20252nd11/271%90%+0.19
11/09/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
02/10/20256th16/116%58%+0.43
18/05/20268th66/10%30%+0.30
05/06/20263rd33/10%80%+0.80
18/06/20262nd9/153%86%+0.33
25/06/20262nd4/696%50%-0.46
18/07/20264th5/174%25%-0.49
27/07/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07