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13

Summerstorms Dream

4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 45

Ayr · Sunday Roast At Western House Hotel Handicap · 5f

#12

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Best efforts have come in 6f course handicaps, including when second last month. Not seen to best effect over C&D a fortnight ago but this is a tougher race and the wait for a first win looks set to continue.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Hamilton 26/06/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 1m1f35y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS26/0656 @ Ayr 07/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 50 · 6f Goo 122 · beat its mark07/07/2025 · OR 50 par6 @ Ayr 21/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 50 · 5f Goo 120 · beat its mark21/07/2025 · OR 50 par21/076OR 506 @ Ayr 05/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 48 · 6f Goo 121 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 48 · 6f GF 123 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 48 par20/056OR 486 @ Hamilton 10/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 47 · 6f6y Goo 148 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 46 · 7f50y Gd 129 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 46 par5/076OR 466 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 45 · 6f GF 122 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 45 · 5f Goo 124 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 45 par27/076OR 45projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27Ayr66th6th0
2026-07-20Ayr62nd2nd0
2026-07-05Ayr67th7th0
2026-06-10Hamilton67th7th0
2026-05-20Ayr65th5th0
2026-05-05Ayr63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/065/055/0727/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength41%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/06/20259th250/10%20%+0.20
07/07/20255th33/10%73%+0.73
21/07/20254th10/382%50%-0.32
05/05/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30
20/05/20265th6/168%56%-0.13
10/06/20267th9/276%0%-0.76
05/07/20267th25/10%40%+0.40
20/07/20262nd11/271%80%+0.09
27/07/20266th9/276%29%-0.48