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11

Supremissy

3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 56

Ayr · Sunday Roast At Western House Hotel Handicap · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

28/1

Win Prob

34%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved when making successful handicap debut at Musselburgh (5f) 7 weeks ago, settling better off the pace and reeling in the trailblazing runner-up late in the day. Up just 2 lb and should get things run to suit again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength69%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Carlisle 09/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 5f182y Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS9/0954 @ Newcastle 19/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 6f Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS19/0344 @ Hamilton 03/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 5f7y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS3/0546 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 54 · 5f1y Gd 128 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 54 par22/066OR 54projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-22Musselburgh61st1st0
2026-05-03Hamilton43rd1st+2
2026-03-19Newcastle49th7th+2
2025-09-29Hamilton4+2
2025-09-09Carlisle510th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0919/033/0522/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/09/202510th40/10%0%0.00
19/03/20269th200/10%20%+0.20
03/05/20263rd66/10%33%+0.33
22/06/20261st28/10%100%+1.00