Water Of Leith
8yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 60
Ayr · Sunday Roast At Western House Hotel Handicap · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ayr | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hamilton | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Musselburgh | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-04-04 | Musselburgh | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |
| 16/03/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 04/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |