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6

Dryburgh

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 75

Ayr · Book Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup Ladies Day Handicap · 1m 2f

#6

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Strong-travelling maiden who has placed on all 3 handicap starts over this trip, looking a shade unfortunate when going as close as he has at Doncaster 2 months ago, and he's entitled to give another good account despite a 4 lb rise.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ffos Las 05/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 7f80y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS5/0842 @ Chester 30/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 7f127y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Newcastle 04/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 76 · 1m5y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 76 par4/104OR 764 @ Kempton 22/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 75 · 1m Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/10/2025 · OR 75 par5 @ Kempton 18/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 73 · 1m Sta 134 · below its mark18/02/2026 · OR 73 par18/025OR 735 @ Doncaster 29/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 70 · 1m2f43y GS 131 · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Nottingham 08/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 70 · 1m2f50y Goo 135 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 70 par8/045OR 704 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 72 · 1m3f188y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Doncaster 05/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 71 · 1m2f43y GF 134 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 71 par5/065OR 71projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-05Doncaster52nd2nd0
2026-05-14York48th7th+1
2026-04-08Nottingham52nd2nd0
2026-03-29Doncaster53rd3rd0
2026-02-18Kempton57th7th0
2025-10-22Kempton43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0822/108/045/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/08/20256th6/168%29%-0.40
30/08/20253rd9/153%67%+0.14
04/10/20255th15/890%0%-0.90
22/10/20253rd11/271%50%-0.21
18/02/20267th11/142%14%-0.28
29/03/20263rd33/10%71%+0.71
08/04/20262nd4/179%88%+0.09
14/05/20268th22/10%46%+0.46
05/06/20262nd11/486%83%-0.02