Geo
4yo Filly · 9-11 · OR 70
Ayr · Book Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup Ladies Day Handicap · 1m 2f
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Hamilton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hamilton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Carlisle | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Hamilton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Thirsk | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 26/04/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |