14
Ibn Altheeb
3yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 66
Ayr · Book Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup Ladies Day Handicap · 1m 2f
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Hamilton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Haydock | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Musselburgh | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-20 | Pontefract | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength75%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 43% | +0.38 |
| 19/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 17/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 20/10/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 12/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 22/05/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |