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2

Mr Lincoln

6yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 75

Ayr · Book Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup Ladies Day Handicap · 1m 2f

#5

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has been in good form without winning, second over C&D (Pol Roger third) in June and not beaten far again over hurdles at Cartmel last time. Solid place claims once more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength71%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Musselburgh 15/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 98 · 1m7f124y Goo 166 · below its mark15/02/2026 · OR 98 par15/025OR 985 @ Carlisle 22/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 93 · 2m1f Goo 161 · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 93 par3 @ Musselburgh 04/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 79 · 1m5f216y Sft 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 79 par4/043OR 794 @ Aintree 15/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 96 · 2m209y Gd 155 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 96 par4 @ Hamilton 04/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 76 · 1m1f35y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 76 par4/064OR 764 @ Perth 07/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 96 · 2m47y Gd 154 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 96 par4 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 74 · 1m2f Sft 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 74 par19/064OR 745 @ Carlisle 04/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 75 · 1m1f Goo 149 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Cartmel 18/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 95 · 2m1f46y Gd 166 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 95 par18/075OR 95projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Cartmel52nd2nd0
2026-07-04Carlisle53rd3rd0
2026-06-19Ayr42nd1st+1
2026-06-07Perth44th3rd+1
2026-06-04Hamilton46th5th+1
2026-05-15Aintree43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0215/0519/0618/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength84%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/02/20267th20/10%25%+0.25
22/03/20262nd9/153%90%+0.37
04/04/20268th50/10%42%+0.42
15/05/20263rd7/282%71%-0.10
04/06/20266th25/10%29%+0.29
07/06/20264th11/271%73%+0.02
19/06/20262nd10/147%89%+0.42
04/07/20263rd3/184%71%-0.13
18/07/20262nd9/488%86%-0.02