10
Natzor
6yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 60
Ayr · Book Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup Ladies Day Handicap · 1m 2f
#12
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Redcar | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 5 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newcastle | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Newcastle | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Newcastle | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Newcastle | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength18%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/10/2025 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 18/10/2025 | 12th | 150/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/12/2025 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 05/03/2026 | 4th | 100/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 31/03/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 01/05/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 27/06/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/07/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |