11
Phantom Shadow
3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 68
Ayr · Book Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup Ladies Day Handicap · 1m 2f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
73%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Nottingham | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ffos Las | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Bath | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Bath | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Yarmouth | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength64%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 14% | -0.28 |
| 30/10/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 19/11/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 11/04/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |