Pol Roger
6yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 69
Ayr · Book Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup Ladies Day Handicap · 1m 2f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Pontefract | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Thirsk | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Southwell | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-11-04 | Redcar | 5 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 09/10/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 20/10/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 04/11/2025 | 13th | 10/1 | 47% | 8% | -0.40 |
| 21/11/2025 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 10/04/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 42% | -0.14 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |