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3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 74

Ayr · Book Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup Ladies Day Handicap · 1m 2f

#4

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved when opening account in 9f Carlisle handicap on soft 2 months ago, channelling his energy more efficiently in a well-run race, though hanging left late on. From a smart family that revels in the mud and there is more to come from him.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Musselburgh 22/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 7f15y Goo 13322/0755 @ Ayr 18/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 1m Goo 13318/0954 @ Wetherby 26/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS26/0445 @ Hamilton 15/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 72 · 1m68y Gd 133 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 72 par15/055OR 724 @ Nottingham 03/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 69 · 1m2f50y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 69 par3/064OR 695 @ Carlisle 09/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 69 · 1m1f Goo 134 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 69 par9/065OR 69projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-09Carlisle51st1st0
2026-06-03Nottingham43rd2nd+1
2026-05-15Hamilton57th7th0
2026-04-26Wetherby44th3rd+1
2025-09-18Ayr54th4th0
2025-07-22Musselburgh55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0718/0926/0415/053/069/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/07/20255th9/153%20%-0.33
18/09/20254th8/158%50%-0.08
26/04/20264th11/142%57%+0.15
15/05/20267th11/142%25%-0.17
03/06/20263rd12/137%60%+0.23
09/06/20261st10/382%100%+0.18