5
Breakdancer
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 82
Ayr · Unite Ewing Hope's Happy Retirement Handicap · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Kempton | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Meydan | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Meydan | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Meydan | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-25 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 42% | -0.35 |
| 10/07/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 06/08/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 25/08/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 16/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.16 |
| 06/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 87% | +0.08 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 73% | -0.12 |
| 02/07/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 22% | -0.51 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |