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8

Count Palatine

5yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 79

Ayr · Unite Ewing Hope's Happy Retirement Handicap · 1m

#10

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Just the one creditable effort to his name this year from 4 starts and remains 2 lb above the mark he defied over 7f here on good to soft last year.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Carlisle 20/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 74 · 6f195y GF 130 · beat its mark20/08/2025 · OR 74 par20/084OR 744 @ Thirsk 06/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 78 · 7f Goo 133 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 78 par4 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 78 · 7f50y Sft 137 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 78 par20/094OR 784 @ Ayr 30/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 77 · 7f50y Sft 137 · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 77 par3 @ Leicester 14/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 82 · 7f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 82 par14/103OR 824 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 82 · 7f Goo 132 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 82 par3 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 81 · 7f218y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 81 par16/053OR 814 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 80 · 7f173y Goo 135 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 20 · OR 80 · 7f Gd 135 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 80 par12/064OR 80projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-12York414th14th0
2026-05-30Carlisle43rd3rd0
2026-05-16Thirsk310th9th+1
2026-04-18Thirsk413th13th0
2025-10-14Leicester32nd1st+1
2025-09-30Ayr41st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0830/0916/0512/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength45%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/08/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
06/09/20256th9/153%64%+0.12
20/09/20256th50/10%50%+0.50
30/09/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
14/10/20252nd28/10%93%+0.93
18/04/202613th25/10%0%0.00
16/05/202610th40/10%25%+0.25
30/05/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
12/06/202614th40/10%32%+0.32