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10

Military Leader

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 73

Ayr · Unite Ewing Hope's Happy Retirement Handicap · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 1m handicaps at Southwell and Thirsk on return in May and good efforts in defeat since, going down only narrowly back at Thirsk (1m, good to firm) 23 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength22%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 07/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 56 · 7f14y Std 131 · beat its mark07/11/2025 · OR 56 par7/116OR 566 @ Newcastle 20/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 55 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark20/11/2025 · OR 55 par6 @ Southwell 12/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 56 · 7f14y Std 131 · beat its mark12/12/2025 · OR 56 par12/126OR 566 @ Newcastle 20/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 56 · 1m5y Std 132 · beat its mark20/12/2025 · OR 56 par5 @ Southwell 07/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 58 · 1m13y Std 123 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 58 par7/055OR 585 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 65 · 7f218y Goo 125 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 68 · 1m5y Std 128 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 68 par2/065OR 685 @ Chester 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 68 · 7f127y Sft 133 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Thirsk 16/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 70 · 7f218y Goo 130 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 70 par16/075OR 70projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-16Thirsk52nd3rd−1
2026-06-12Chester52nd3rd−1
2026-06-02Newcastle53rd4th−1
2026-05-16Thirsk51st2nd−1
2026-05-07Southwell51st2nd−1
2025-12-20Newcastle62nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/1120/122/0616/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength96%

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/11/20253rd7/282%75%-0.07
20/11/20252nd4/179%92%+0.13
12/12/20254th9/276%77%+0.01
20/12/20252nd2/189%89%-0.01
07/05/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
16/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
02/06/20263rd9/488%82%-0.06
12/06/20262nd9/276%90%+0.14
16/07/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08