Theoryofeverything
6yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 87
Ayr · Unite Ewing Hope's Happy Retirement Handicap · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 6.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Ayr | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Redcar | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hamilton | 2 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 2 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Doncaster | 2 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2025-10-25 | Doncaster | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 92% | +0.40 |
| 12/10/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.58 |
| 18/10/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 25/10/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 46% | +0.30 |
| 28/03/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 14/05/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 76% | +0.76 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 05/07/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 22% | -0.54 |