12
Doon The Glen
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 51
Ayr · Christmas Parties At Western House Hotel Handicap · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Hamilton | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Hamilton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hamilton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Hamilton | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength38%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 17/06/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 13/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 27/07/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |