Elemma
3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 61
Ayr · Christmas Parties At Western House Hotel Handicap · 6f
#12
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 7.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Chester | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Ripon | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-04-21 | Pontefract | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 17/05/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 43% | +0.01 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 25/06/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |