Kelpie Grey
6yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 62
Ayr · Christmas Parties At Western House Hotel Handicap · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 4 | 13th | 11th | +2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hamilton | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ayr | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Musselburgh | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 25/10/2025 | 15th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 05/11/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 12/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 44% | -0.32 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 04/06/2026 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 13% | -0.76 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 62% | +0.09 |
| 06/07/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 38% | -0.45 |